International grain markets were supported last week, with Paris milling wheat futures up 2.7%, the AHDB reports.

Information from major exporters, geopolitical risks and weather risks for winter crops, particularly in Russia, have contributed to this support.

LSEG reports that Russia will likely increase its wheat export duty to almost 32% due to high inflation in the country and potential risks to winter crops.

The latest crop monitor data show that Russia’s winter wheat crop is in mixed condition, with the total sown area expected to decrease compared with last year. Despite the rising export duty, Russian wheat export prices remain favourable, pressuring grain markets, the AHDB reports.

US report

The latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) was published this week by the USDA.

The report states that, globally, maize stocks for the 2024/25 season declined to 296 million tonnes (Mt), a 7.7Mt cut. Brazil’s and Argentina’s production were left unchanged.

Wheat world ending stocks were estimated at 257Mt, increased from 257.57Mt in November. The USDA cut global wheat production from 794.73Mt last month to 792.95Mt in December.

The USDA estimates wheat production in Argentina at 17Mt, unchanged from November.

Wheat production in Australia was estimated at 32Mt, also unchanged from last month. Brazil’s production is estimated at 8Mt, down from 8.5Mt last month.

The USDA estimates wheat production in Russia at 81Mt, unchanged from November. Ukraine’s wheat production was pegged at 22Mt, also unchanged. Wheat exports from Russia were estimated at 47Mt, decreased from 48Mt, while the USDA pegs Ukraine exports at 16.5Mt, an increase from 16Mt.

Barley

Globally, the 2024/25 barley area is at its lowest level in the last 20 years, according to USDA data.

World barley ending stocks for the 2024/25 marketing year could also be at their lowest level in the last 20 years. However, the European Commission currently forecasts full-season EU barley exports at 10Mt for 2024/25, which is relatively in line with 2023/24 levels (9.95Mt).

Native Prices

The spot price for dry barley remains at around €225/t, while the spot price for dry wheat is holding at around €240/t. The imported equivalent is trading €5-€10/t higher.

Maize being imported into the country remains stable at €235/t, while imported soya is trading at around €390/t.