Could crop insurance reduce grain price volatility?

Grain prices are 20% higher compared to a decade ago, but they are lower than the prices seen in the past four years. That was the message from James Nolan, grain trader at R&H Hall at Tillage Day.

He said that the high prices in 2022 were not down to supply and demand, but a “dislocation” in the market due to geopolitical volatility.

“The grain was being grown, but politics put a stop to it [the grain being exported].” He argued that the price has now returned to a “fair value”, even if fertiliser and other inputs have remained at a higher level.

A question from the audience asked whether a CAP-supported crop insurance scheme would be beneficial to farmers.

Donal Moloney, grain manager at Tirlán, noted that this is probably a national or European government policy issue, rather than for individual companies to be issuing these insurance policies.

“We probably don’t have the same variation in crop yield here as there would be in the United States.

It works well for them but it’s another cost and there’ll be some years where your premium will be gone and you won’t see anything back because you don’t need it,” he added.

Rory Deverell, founder of Black Silo Commodity Consulting, agreed with Donal that there is less yield variability in Ireland. However, he noted that crop insurance in the US considers both price and yield.

“We don’t have the same yield variability to justify the yield insurance part, but I don’t see any good reason why the Government can’t support the price insurance component.”

He continued by saying that this could be achieved through a reduction in tax on money paid out by a crop insurance, or through a subsidisation of the cost of the insurance.

By putting a floor on the national value of grain, Rory explained that you’re keeping money in the tillage sector and preventing millions of euros from evaporating overnight through a downward movement in the world markets.