Experts in the tillage industry have indicated that the tillage area could decline by at least 20,000ha in 2024 and this loss of land could go as high as 35,000ha.

The rain has been unprecedented. A total of 35,000ha less winter crops were planted in autumn 2023. Farmers remained hopeful of planting more winter cereals in January and early February, but the opportunity didn’t arise. Only small areas were planted.

And now, as we reach the end of March, rain has continued to prevent farmers from moving into fields to cultivate for spring crops, not to mind plant. The area sown to spring beans and spring cereals so far has been tiny and isolated to very dry ground.

Many farmers have not even been able to apply fertiliser or herbicide to winter cereal crops as the land is so wet.

It is no wonder then that a dramatic decline in cereal area is expected. Grain prices are lower than harvest 2023, although showing some recovery in the last few weeks and there is huge competition for land.

Tillage area declining

Tillage farmers cannot compete in the land rental market in many cases as dairy farmers, who either need to reduce cow numbers or rent more land, have the money and the potential to pay higher prices.

There are many stories about how tillage land is moving to grass. Some land is being planted with maize, beet or cereals by dairy farmers, but specialist tillage farmers are either losing land or reducing their tillage area.

Arable fallow payment

As the weather worsens, we need to find a way to stop that land leaving the sector, because once planted in grass it will be very hard for that land to return to tillage.

In January, Irish Farmers Journal editor Jack Kennedy wrote about the arable fallow payment in the UK. The payment is £598/ha or €688/ha or €280/ac.

The fallow payment is part of the UK’s agricultural environmental policies and schemes.

This year, the area of fallow in the UK is expected to rise from 311,000ha in 2023 to 388,000ha in 2024, according to the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board’s second run of its early-bird planting survey.

The total area of cereals, oilseed rape, pulses, maize, beet, linseed, borage, potatoes, vegetables, temporary grass and arable fallow was 4,800,000ha in 2023 and is estimated at 4,780,000ha in 2024.

The arable payment looks to be helping in some way to maintain the area of arable land in 2024 as farmers who are struggling to plant think about putting more land in fallow and receive a payment.

The Department of Agriculture here in Ireland need to do something fast. The Government set a target to increase tillage area to 400,000ha, an increase of about 52,000ha. With a fall of 20,000ha or more on the cards, that target will become more difficult.