A 3% lift in grain prices after direct input costs fell by 15% for tillage farmers, is set to see this year’s average income rise to €30,000 after a difficult 2023.

Tillage farmers witnessed the steepest income decline of any farming sector last year, but Teagasc’s outlook for 2025 expects that incomes will recover to €42,000 if next year’s weather reverts to more typical conditions.

Should the year proceed as expected by Teagasc economists, 2025 will be the third highest year for average tillage incomes since 2010, but with the warning that there remains much uncertainty around harvest 2025’s grain prices.

Cereal prices are forecast to increase slightly, but it is the assumption that yields will revert to trend and increase output over a variable 2024 that boosts tillage incomes in Teagasc’s figures.

Teagasc’s economists do not anticipate an easing in the overall direct costs facing tillage farmers, as the savings that result from an expected 5% fall in fertiliser costs will likely be evened out in other cost areas.

The stable cost but increased output scenario would see tillage margins average €200/ha in 2025, before decoupled payments are accounted for, but around 30% of tillage farmers would still remain in the red.