There is no sign of the long run of poor beef prices coming to an end, as the pressure is on getting cattle into the factory with price not even open to debate.

As we approach the end of October, we are at the time of year when the factories with major UK supermarket contracts start killing for Christmas. That would give price a lift in a good year and stabilise the market in a bad one, but, so far this year, there is little sign of either.

British trade

As the UK consumes five times as much Irish beef as is eaten in Ireland, what is happening there has the biggest influence of all on our trade.

It imports one quarter of the total beef it consumes and the fact that imports this year to the end of August are 28,000t behind the same period in 2018 is an indication that there is poor demand for beef.

UK imports are at just over 160,000t of beef this year to the end of August, compared with over 188,000t in the same period in 2018 and 173,557t between January and August in 2017.

Irish sales to the UK in this period are down from 133,408t at the end of August 2018 to 124,309t for the period between January and August this year.

The different Brexit deadlines have had a disruptive effect on trade

The weakness of sterling also encouraged UK beef exports, with volumes to the continent up from 72,088t for the period January to August 2018 to 84,789t for the same period this year.

The different Brexit deadlines have had a disruptive effect on trade, with stockpiling at the start of the year leading to offloading stocks on to the market in the late spring and early summer.

There is less evidence of stockpiling ahead of next week’s Brexit deadline, which also looks like it will be extended further.

Consumption

UK consumption has also been in the doldrums this year. According to Kantar retail sales data, it has been a particularly bad year for sales of roast cuts and steak meat.

In the year ending 19 September, sales of roasts were down 6.9%, while sales of steak cuts were down 6.5%. These are the highest value parts of the carcase and when their sales are depressed it has an overall depressing effect on carcase value and farmgate price.

Demand for steak meat and roast, the higher value parts of the carcase is down over 6%, while sales of the lower value mince have increased.

Total beef volumes are down just 0.4%, because mince again has performed strongly, increasing sales volume by 3.7%, but this isn’t as high a value product as the cuts that lost sales.

Continental trade

While the price of beef is now better on the continent, particularly for young bulls where the EU average is 30c/kg better than the Irish price (excluding VAT), it is still a weak market.

Both Brazil and Uruguay are selling much less to the EU this year, though this is offset by an increase in Argentina’s sales particularly of rump and loin steak meat at exceptionally low market values.

Any hope?

Irish sales to the USA have doubled this year, and at 19 October, according to US import data, had reached 4,600t. This is still a miniscule amount, but still an indication that we are getting established in that market.

Additionally, the fact that China is continuing to grow at an exceptional rate should create opportunities, though it will be the new year before any meaningful extra shipments take place.

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Beef trends: oversupply continues to dominate trade