How high will the beef price go?

Beef finishers are enjoying an exceptional start to 2025 with finished cattle prices up €400-€500/head since the start of the year.

The beef trade works off simple supply and demand principles, when supplies are tight and demand is high the price goes up and when supplies are plentiful and demand goes down the price also comes down.

It’s market dynamics and not a decision by anybody to pay more for beef.

Factory bosses haven’t suddenly realised that beef finishers were losing their shirt for the last number of years finishing cattle and raised the price on the back of some sudden good Samaritan sentiment.

They raised the price because they had to.

There is some chat out there that the beef price is only where it needs to be and for once farmers are finally getting rewarded for their endeavours.

While I agree entirely with the fact that beef finishers need the price they are getting at the moment, the emotion around the current prices being here to stay and that €8/kg is the new norm should be taken with a degree of caution.

Unfortunately buying weanlings at €5/kg doesn’t automatically guarantee €8/kg for beef in 2026.

In marts at the moment you probably have four to five different types of customer.

The factory agent buying on behalf of the factory.

This is low risk buying with multi million euro businesses backing up the purchases for next day kill so there is no chance of anyone getting caught.

Exporters paying big money for weanlings can do so in the knowledge that within 30-40 days they will have their money back along with their margin.

It’s a short turnaround and while the money is big the amount of time that cattle are on hand means the risk level is low.

Weanlings are probably the highest risk cattle being purchased at the moment, well at least for the farmer buyer.

If you take a farmer at the moment buying a 10-month-old weanling weighing 350kg at €1,400 and the system is 30-month finishing, that’s going to be December 2026 before that bullock is killed.

Has anyone got insight into where beef price will be at in December 2026? A few will speculate but nobody can give you a concrete answer.

That’s why you need to have some figures done on a lower beef price to make sure that the bills can be paid if beef price drops.

Factories don’t issue contracts to smaller finishers.

Feedlot finishers are on contract though and many of these are paying big money around the rings for forward store cattle in the knowledge that they will have a guaranteed margin at the end of the finishing period.

So you can see how a small farmer buyer trying to buy some weanlings to meet the Area of Natural Constraints (ANC) scheme requirements can get caught up in the current battle for beef.

Live exports took a huge jump in 2024 with very high demand from North African countries with Morocco standing out as the star performer of 2024. There have also been solid numbers of weanlings exported to Italy with good numbers of lighter type calves also moving to Spain.

Weanlings exports finished 2024 over 70% higher than the 2023 figure.

Store cattle exports have also seen a dramatic rise in 2024 with exports up close to 60% on the 2023 figure. Northern Ireland has seen a 5.5% rise in store cattle imports from ROI and with finishing numbers tightening that looks to continue well into 2025.

The only fly in the ointment is calf exports. The Netherlands took 33,547 less Irish calves in 2024 and the decline looks set to continue in 2025 with farmer buyers taking exporters out at the moment.

On a positive note, other new eastern European markets have opened up with Poland taking 8,586 more calves in 2024, up 50% on the 2023 figure. The 2025 live export trade has also started very strong with huge numbers of weanlings continuing to be exported on a weekly basis. High exports will mean fewer cattle in the country for future finishing so it’s good news for finishers. The only concern in all of this is Bluetongue and the implications an outbreak could have on Irish cattle exports.

One of the reasons for the current high live exports is Bluetongue outbreaks across Europe, so its really important Ireland does everything in its power to keep it out.

The IFA have made calls this week to formulate a plan should we see an outbreak of Bluetongue in Ireland. Now is the time to look at plans instead of working in crisis mode should the worst case scenario occur.

Bord Bia’s forecasts are predicting the 2025 cattle kill drop by 87,000 or almost 1,700 cattle a week.

This is positive news for beef finishers.

This reduction in supply is heavily weighted towards the first half of 2025 with supplies for quarter one back by 8% and supplies in quarter two back by 7%.

A 2% reduction is forecast for quarter three and quarter four forecast to be back by 2%.

This all adds up to a 5% reduction in finished cattle supplies in 2025.

The 2025 kill is predicted to see 64,000 less prime cattle killed, 8,000 less cows and 15,000 less other cattle killed.

With an increasing proportion of the national kill coming from the dairy herd, lighter carcase weights mean less volumes of beef being processed, which is also contributing to the increased demand for beef volume.

Despite all the talk about vegan and non-meat diets consumption has been solid. The latest Kantar supermarket spend data from the UK shows steak meat volumes up 3.7% and mince up 2%. Table 1 outlines the rise in retail prices in British supermarkets in the last 12 months. Mince has seen some of the largest increases. Table 2 outlines the beef price increases in some of our main markets. In Britain the beef price increase is almost double the supermarket increase leaving questions to the margin that was being achieved prior to the current rise. While the restaurant trade has been quick to head steak plates for €40/plate the average 10 ounce sirloin steak has gone up about 80 cent in the last 12 months in supermarkets.

Looking around the world beef supply and demand are finely balanced with no big shifts expected in 2025. EU and UK beef production is forecast to decline in 2025. China is keeping any threat of increased exports of South American beef away from the EU. The UK has a free trade deal with Australia and, depending on the tariff imposed on US imports by President Trump, this could send more Australian beef to the UK, putting pressure on Irish prices. High live exports, tight Irish supplies, strong demand coupled with a stable world market point to no major shocks in the short term. Will it go higher? We are still €1/kg behind the British market but ahead of some of our EU markets so we may be coming close to the peak, but if the Irish beef price stays between €7-€8/kg, many finishers will be happy to work in that range.