Questions have to be asked across the board as to why there is complete radio silence in relation to a looming crisis on suckler, beef and sheep farms. Strong market prices should not distract from the income crisis these farmers are facing and the extent to which this could be amplified in the months ahead.

This week Siobhán Walsh details the latest results from the Teagasc farm survey. They highlight the severity of challenges on drystock farms and expose the extent of the crisis the sector could be heading into.

The fact that 72% of drystock farmers plan to cut the rate of chemical nitrogen (N) applied to grazing ground by up to 50% and 57% are reducing the rate of chemical N applied to silage ground should come as no surprise.

These farmers didn’t have the cashflow to forward-buy fertiliser early in the season and are now being forced into a market where they can’t afford to buy CAN at €1,000/t or, in some cases, over €60 for a 50kg bag – with the issue compounded by the lack of merchant credit.

In this environment, advising these farmers on the need to maintain fertiliser rates to produce adequate forage for the summer and winter months is futile.

Similarly advising them to borrow money to purchase fertiliser is a high-risk strategy on a number of fronts. Firstly, advice to spread repayments out over a number of years ignores the fact that fertiliser prices are likely to remain inflated for a sustained period – what will the financial advice be to these farmers in 2023 when trying to purchase high-priced fertiliser along with meeting repayments for the previous year’s application?

Secondly, unlike in dairy and tillage where output prices are responding to soaring input costs, these farmers have no guarantee of what the beef/weanling and/or store lamb trade will be when selling stock next autumn.

Little comfort should be taken from the strong beef prices currently being returned. As Adam Woods reports, a 90c/kg year-on-year increase in beef prices is not enough to offset the surge in concentrate prices and finisher margins are actually in decline. It is worth noting that EU beef prices are 140c/kg ahead of last year.

Decisions

Furthermore, if the data from the Teagasc survey reflects decisions being taken across all suckler/beef and sheep farms, then there is a danger that we will see major market disruption in the months ahead.

Farmers spreading less fertiliser on silage and grazing ground simply won’t be in a position to maintain stock numbers and will have to offload additional animals. What will the trade for a potential oversupply of stock be next summer/autumn when buyers will be valuing their silage pits at over €50/t and potentially facing ration prices of over €450/t? Adam Woods has calculated that if forward store prices next autumn remain in line with the year previous, the inflated costs will leave winter finishers requiring a breakeven price of over €6/kg.

If increased costs on suckler farmers are to be reflected in the price of the store animals next autumn, this figure increases to almost €7/kg.

Ultimately, there is a window of just a few weeks for all to wake up and grasp the severity of the situation developing on many farms. Within this window we need to see support that allows drystock farmers boost fertiliser application during the peak growing month of May.

The national fodder and food security committee has proved itself to be no more than a political mudguard for Minister for Agriculture Charlie McConalogue to hide behind. But it is critical that the minister comes out of hiding on this issue.

Government cannot allow suckler, beef and sheep farmers sleepwalk into this crisis – while committing to multibillion euro support packages to help wider society deal with soaring costs.

Equally, it is time for farm organisations at the very least to mount a sustained farmer-led campaign demanding the minister immediately re-targets the €40m underspend/clawback under the BEAM scheme back into these sectors.

Every avenue must be exhausted and support given to those in the trade to maximise live export opportunities in the months ahead in an effort to maintain competition in the face of increased stock numbers coming forward. At EU level, the need to significantly increase the price trigger for the introduction of public intervention for the main commodities – currently set at €2.22kg for beef – must be highlighted alongside the need for a proper financial support package.

No running for cover

If measures are not delivered, there can be no running for cover or engaging in a blame game when the implications of doing nothing become clear in the months ahead. So far, this cohort of farmers have been left high and dry and as a result, the suckler and sheep sectors are being allowed to sleepwalk into a crisis. There is just a matter of weeks left for all to step up and respond to the challenge – otherwise the die will be cast.