Despite the global pandemic and the threat of Brexit, EU agricultural performance remains steady in 2020.

Other major concerns include the impact of finding African swine fever (ASF) in wild boars on the eastern borders of Germany and the closure of important export markets in Asia.

Dairy

Dairy production is expected to be up 1.4% across the EU this year. Exports have increased across all categories in the first half of the year, with skimmed milk powder (SMP) expected to reach 850,000t, the second highest on record.

Butter exports are forecast to reach a record high of 320,000t and cheese exports are expected to increase by 5%, offsetting the reduction of EU consumption by just under 1% due to the disruption in the food service sector.

Beef

EU beef production fell by 2.4% during the first half of the year, but recovery in the second half means it is forecast to fall by 1.4% overall in 2020.

What is most notable is the sharp decline in beef imports due to the pandemic, which caused the closure of much of the EU’s hospitality and food service sectors.

Imports from Brazil to the end of July were 67,773t compared with 92,891t in the same period last year.

Argentina was down from 59,008t between January and July 2019 to 47,859t for the same period this year.

Both countries redirected their exports to China as the EU market collapsed in the first half of the year, although it is expected to recover in the second half.

Sheepmeat

Sheep farmers have benefited from falling production in the EU this year, back 4% year on year and EU imports are also down, 25% in the case of the UK and 20% from Australia and New Zealand as they battle with drought and focus on China as their primary export market.

Pigmeat

It had been shaping up to be an exceptional year for pigmeat in the EU, with sales to China more than doubling.

However, the discovery of ASF in Germany and the halting of trade with China, Japan and South Korea will cause a sharp reduction in exports in the second half of the year, so the forecast for 2021 is likely to fall by 10%.

This is because of recovery in Chinese production and the switch to other meat imports, as well as the disruption caused by ASF in Germany.

Arable crops

EU cereal production is estimated to be down 6.8% to 274.3m tonnes, with wheat down to 115.5m tonnes and maize to 63.1m tonnes, due in the main to adverse weather negatively affecting yields.

A dramatic fall of 35% is expected in wheat exports for the 2020/21 marketing year, down to 24m tonnes.