Grain Trends: drop in markets as tariffs await

Grain prices fell in recent days, but remain in the general area where they have been in recent weeks.

Matif wheat for December closed last Friday at €225.25/t, down €8.50/t on the week. On Wednesday afternoon, it was at €226/t.

UK and US prices were also down. French maize prices were down about €4/t last week. On Wednesday afternoon, the November price was at €212.50/t. US maize prices also declined.

Oilseed rape

Oilseed rape prices have continued their upward trends in recent days.

Last week, the French November price closed at €489.25/t. On Wednesday afternoon, it was at €492/t. This is up from a low of €459.75/t on 17 March.

At home, a green harvest price of €455/t was available last week.

The tariffs on Canada are important to keep an eye on, as Canada will need to find a market for its rapeseed and Europe could see more product entering the market from this destination. Soybean prices were up in the US, which may help oilseed prices.

US planting

The United States Department of Agriculture released its Prospective Plantings Report on Monday.

Corn (maize) area is estimated up 5% or 4.74m acres from last year to 95.3m acres. Soybean area is estimated down 4% to 83.5m acres, wheat down 2% to 45.4m acres and cotton down 12% to 9.87m acres.

Price is most likely a factor in the switch from soybeans to corn, but the reliance on export markets for soybeans and the uncertainty surrounding trade due to tariffs is also reported to be affecting plantings.

About 60% of US soybeans are exported. Reuters reported that about 53% were destined for China in the last three years.

Tariffs

The US announcement on tariffs was due after going to print, so how this will affect markets will play out in the coming days.

Some of the reasons for the drop in US corn prices this week were associated with tariffs and the increase in area expected to be planted.

Native prices

At home, spot barley prices were reported steady, while wheat looks to be down to €240/t at least.

November wheat is similar, with barley at €230/t or below, which equates to where green prices are at present for November at around €195/t.

In Northern Ireland, spot feed barley was reported at £201/t last Friday, down £2/t in the week and spot wheat was reported at £210/t, down £7/t in the week.